OTCPicks Penny Stock Blog

• Since it's the beginning of a new year we thought we'd take a peak at the 2009 Traders Almanac and see what it has to say as follows:
• In 12 of the last 14 post-election years the year's market performance followed in January's direction. So if January is an "Up" month in the broader markets and the year's market performance is likely to follow in the same direction and likewise for a "Down" January market performance.
• Every down January on the S&P since 1950, without exception, preceded a new or extended bear market, or a flat market for the year.
• S&P's gains during January's first five days preceded full-year gains 86.1% of the time. 10 of the last 14 post-election years followed the first five day's trading direction and act as an "Early Warning" detection.
• November, December and January typically constitute the year's best 3 month span.
• There have been five straight post-election year January gains going back to 1985 and we think there may be a pre-innaguration market rally on optimism of what will happen with the new incoming administration.

Low Oil Prices are Like a Tax Cut

• Massive infrastructure and public works projects, with money for roads, mass transit, bridges and schools, projects that Mr Obama has called "shovel ready.''
• A portion of a middle class tax cut that will become part of a permanent tax cut in the upcoming budget: immediate tax relief of some $500 for individuals and $1000 for couples.
• Doubling production of renewable energy through spending and tax incentives.
• Developing a national energy grid for harnessing and distributing power derived from water, wind and other alternative energy sources.
• Cash for states facing revenue shortfalls.
• Improving health care technology to bolster productivity and reduce bureaucratic costs.
• Extending part-time workers' unemployment compensation - a proposal Republican lawmakers have blocked in the past.
• Subsidizing employer expenses to temporarily continue health insurance coverage for laid-off and retired workers and their dependents.
• The plan may also enable workers laid-off from jobs without insurance benefits to become eligible for Medicaid coverage.

• Since it's the beginning of a new year we thought we'd take a peak at the 2009 Traders Almanac and see what it has to say as follows:
• In 12 of the last 14 post-election years the year's market performance followed in January's direction. So if January is an "Up" month in the broader markets and the year's market performance is likely to follow in the same direction and likewise for a "Down" January market performance.
• Every down January on the S&P since 1950, without exception, preceded a new or extended bear market, or a flat market for the year.
• S&P's gains during January's first five days preceded full-year gains 86.1% of the time. 10 of the last 14 post-election years followed the first five day's trading direction and act as an "Early Warning" detection.
• November, December and January typically constitute the year's best 3 month span.
• There have been five straight post-election year January gains going back to 1985 and we think there may be a pre-innaguration market rally on optimism of what will happen with the new incoming administration.

Low Oil Prices are Like a Tax Cut

• Massive infrastructure and public works projects, with money for roads, mass transit, bridges and schools, projects that Mr Obama has called "shovel ready.''
• A portion of a middle class tax cut that will become part of a permanent tax cut in the upcoming budget: immediate tax relief of some $500 for individuals and $1000 for couples.
• Doubling production of renewable energy through spending and tax incentives.
• Developing a national energy grid for harnessing and distributing power derived from water, wind and other alternative energy sources.
• Cash for states facing revenue shortfalls.
• Improving health care technology to bolster productivity and reduce bureaucratic costs.
• Extending part-time workers' unemployment compensation - a proposal Republican lawmakers have blocked in the past.
• Subsidizing employer expenses to temporarily continue health insurance coverage for laid-off and retired workers and their dependents.
• The plan may also enable workers laid-off from jobs without insurance benefits to become eligible for Medicaid coverage.

December 1, 2008 -

The stock market today suffered one of its worst days since the financial meltdown began, slicing 680 points off the Dow Jones industrial average as Wall Street snapped out of its daydream of a rally and once again faced the harsh reality of a recession.

Not only did stocks end their five-day winning streak, they erased more than half the gains. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, one of the broadest market gauges, lost nearly 9 percent.

Erasing any lingering doubts, there was also finally an officially declared recession — in progress in the United States since December 2007, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the nonprofit group of economists that classifies business cycles.

Retail Holiday Outlook Bleak!

Concerns that the 2008 holiday shopping season could cap off the bleakest year-end season for retailers contributed to the negative tone, along with a slide in financials and energy stocks. Black Friday sales were up from a year ago, but sales tailed off over the weekend as the door-buster promotions ended. More than 70% of shoppers said they were out over the weekend specifically to take advantage of the big-ticket promotions and beyond that they were not buying heavily this year. Adults indicated they would buy for the kids, but were keeping the adult purchases to a minimum. This is not great news for retailers this year and the shopping discounts might continue to increase as desperate retailers try to liquidate inventory.

"We thought mall traffic was good but lines were not as impressive as shoppers cherry-picked the best deals," said UBS analyst Roxanne Meyer. "We thought promotions would have been steeper, given retailers' inventory issues. The new reality is that 25 to 30 percent off is not going to cut it." Look for more retail discounts as retailers try to liquidate inventories before the year end. After Christmas sales should also include steep discounts. Retail stocks were down significantly on Monday in early trading.

Manufacturing Falls

Manufacturing in the U.S. contracted in November at the steepest rate in 26 years, leading Europe and Asia into a global industrial slump as the credit continued to be tight worldwide.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index dropped to 36.2, below economists’ forecasts, and its gauge of raw-material costs plunged to its lowest in sixty years, the Tempe, Arizona-based group reported today. Factory indexes in China, the U.K., euro area, and Russia all fell to record lows.

Stocks worldwide tumbled and yields on U.S. Treasury securities fell to the lowest ever on concern a lack of credit will shut down consumer and business spending. The deepening recession and a non-inflationary environment with oil falling is pressuring policy makers to keep lowering interest rates and implement new consumer stimulus plans.

The ISM index was projected to drop to 37, according to the median of 61 economists’ forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 33.5 to 40. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

A report from the Commerce Department also showed construction spending fell 1.2 percent in October, a bigger drop than forecast, as a slump in homebuilding spread to non- residential projects such as power plants, churches and highways.

The U.S. ISM’s purchasing managers’ gauge of new orders for factories decreased to 27.9, the lowest since 1980, from 32.2 the prior month. The production measure fell to 31.5 from 34.1.

“These are all recession readings,” Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “There is widespread weakness within the manufacturing sector.”

Less Inflation

The index of prices paid dropped to 25.5, the lowest level in six decades, from 37. Oil has dropped from a peak in July at $147 to just above $50 per barrel today and nationwide gas prices have dropped to just under $2 per gallon.

Wholesale and retail prices are starting to retreat due to diminishing demand domestically and internationally. That also means that manufacturers are not able to hold their pricing as well.

The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5 percent pace in the third quarter, with business spending on equipment and software declining at a 5.7 percent rate, the biggest drop since the first quarter of 2002. Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley in New York are among those projecting the economy will contract at a 5 percent pace in Q4.

Auto Manufacturers are Among Hardest Hit

Automakers are among the hardest hit by the slump in demand. New sales data is due tomorrow are forecast to show November auto sales dropped to a 10.5 million annualized rate, the weakest pace since April 1991, a Bloomberg survey shows.

Automakers may be facing several years of lower demand as the credit squeeze, unemployment, foreclosures, weak housing markets and sluggish retail take their toll. Companies are cutting payrolls and investments after consumer spending in the third quarter plunged by 3.7 percent, the most in 28 years.

Automakers are due to submit their revised business plans to congress by Tuesday and are due on Capital Hill on Thursday and Friday to present their plans in congressional hearings and to ask for a financial aid package to allow them to survive their impending liquidity crisis.

General Motors Corp. Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner and his counterparts at Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC will put their jobs on the line this week when they try to convince Congress they can save their companies.

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid gave them a pretty clear plan for what they expect, and their focus had better be on coming in with a solid plan.

GM’s board met in Detroit to consider the rescue plan that may determine Wagoner’s fate. The directors started reviewing the automaker’s proposals yesterday in a 10-hour meeting and will continue today, people familiar with the plans said.

Bernanke Says Fed May Buy Treasuries to Aid Economy

The U.S. economy “will probably remain weak for a time,” even if the credit crisis eases, Bernanke said today in a speech in Austin, Texas.

Bernanke has created more than $2 trillion of emergency lending programs in the past year, using the Fed’s balance sheet and money-creation authority to cushion the economy from the worst financial crisis in seven decades. The central bank may lower its benchmark interest rate to zero and pump even more funds into the banking system, economists said.

“Although further reductions from the current federal funds rate target of 1 percent are certainly feasible, at this point the scope for using conventional interest-rate policies to support the economy is obviously limited,” Bernanke said in prepared remarks to the Austin Chamber of Commerce.

One option is for the Fed to buy “longer-term Treasury or agency securities on the open market in substantial quantities,” Bernanke said. “This approach might influence the yields on these securities, thus helping to spur aggregate demand.”

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson also spoke on Monday and said that the Bush administration is looking for more ways to tap the $700 billion financial rescue program and will consult with Congress and the incoming Obama administration.

Bulls are saying that we are in what may be a protracted bottoming process while bears say that there is yet more downside yet to come and the market will likely test recent market lows again and might continue it's downward trend for a time to come.

One thing is for sure, no one is starting to sing "Happy Days are Here Again" just yet!

Stay Tuned!

October 29, 2008

Feds Cut Interest Rate Half a Point

On Wednesday Oct 29, the Federal Reserve slashed a key interest rate by half a percentage point as it seeks to revive an economy rocked by the worst financial crisis in the better part of the last century. U.S. stocks dropped in the final minutes of trading on concerns that the Federal Reserve's sixth interest- rate cut this year isn't enough to rescue the economy.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 10.42 points, or 1.1 percent, to 930.09, one day after surging 11 percent. The Dow average slumped 74.16, or 0.8 percent, to 8,990.96. Three stocks gained for every two that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.

The central bank on Wednesday reduced its federal funds rate target, the interest banks charge on overnight loans, to 1 percent, a low last seen in 2003-2004. The funds rate has not been lower since 1958, when Dwight Eisenhower was president.

The cut marked the second half-point reduction in the funds rate this month. The Fed slashed the rate by half a point in conjunction with rate cuts by foreign banks back on October 8th.

This is the second day that most major indexes have been in positive territory. Tuesday ended with nearly a 900 point Dow gain, and today the Dow was up more than 200 points for part of the session but those gains were erased in the final minutes of the trading day.

In addition to the rate cuts, the Fed has been starting to pump billions of dollars into the U.S. banking system to help unfreeze credit markets. Congress passed on Oct. 3 a $700 billion rescue package to make direct purchases of bank stock and buy up bad assets as a way of getting financial institutions to start lending again. This week some of the first of those bank payouts began.

Earlier this week $125 billion was sent to nine of the nation's biggest banks. Other industries, including automakers and insurance companies, are also in talks with the administration to get bailout funds.

Oil Goes Up and the Dollar Goes Down

The price of oil rose Wednesday as the dollar retreated from recent highs and signs of strength in overseas markets tempered some concerns about waning demand. The interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve seemed to have little impact on oil prices as investors appeared to have already priced in the central bank's latest attempt at boosting the economy.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose $4.77 to settle at $67.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the session, oil rose more than $6 to trade at $68.91 a barrel. On Tuesday, the price oil settled at $62.73 a barrel, its lowest level in 17 months. The primary driver today of oil's rise is a weakening dollar which backed off of recent highs as international markets showed some signs of strength tempering concerns about waning demand.

Prices at the pump fell for the 42nd-straight day to levels not seen since March 2007. The national average price for a gallon of regular gas fell another 4 cents overnight to $2.589, according to a daily survey by the American Automobile Association.

Separately, a recent Department of Energy report showed that Americans are driving 5.6% less than last year. And a weekly MasterCard survey of gas purchases showed motorists consumed 6.4% less gas in the past week compared to a year ago.

U.S. Regulators Mulling Plan for Government Guarantees of Home Mortgages

U.S. regulators are supposedly working on a new program that could provide government guarantees for up to $600 billion of home mortgages to help prevent foreclosures and it might fall under the control of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp and the U.S. Treasury Department. This program could provide guarantees for some 3 million at-risk mortgages. This program has not yet officially been announced, but the Treasury Department said on Wednesday that it is working with the FDIC and other policymakers on foreclosure-prevention measures but that no detailed plan has been reached.

The plan would supposedly provide federal guarantees to entice lenders to ease the terms of troubled mortgages which has been a problem as the credit crisis has deepened. Sources said that a program is likely to be announced in the next few days.

Good News, but Harsh Results

Wall Street got the interest rate cut it wanted, but markets turned higher then slid hard in the last minutes of trading on Wednesday. The major indexes ended the day mixed, with the Dow Jones industrials falling 74 points — only the third time in October that the blue chips had just a double-digit close.

September 22, 2008

This past week has seen an unprecedented events happening on Wall Street and a major rollercoaster ride in the stock market. This past week shook the foundations of the world financial system. A sharp slide in U.S. housing prices and a subsequent rise in delinquencies on home loans is the root cause of these massive losses on mortgage-backed bonds that in recent years have spread across the global financial landscape.

The financial crisis that began 13 months ago has entered a new, far more serious phase. Hopes that the damage could be contained to a handful of financial institutions that made bad bets on mortgages have evaporated this past week. Now increasingly big cracks have appeared in the system beyond the original problem -- troubled subprime mortgages -- in areas like credit-default swaps, the credit insurance contracts sold by American International Group Inc. and others. This led to a crazy week last week on Wall Street:

Here is a rundown of some of this past week's wild series of events:

1. Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy on Monday.

2. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) said it has agreed to buy Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MER) in an all-stock deal worth around $50B.

3. The Fed bailed out American International Group's (AIG) with an $85B infusion giving the government 80% ownership of the company.The Fed said if AIG were to topple, interest rates would have risen, lowering consumer buying power and stifling the already weakened economy and potentially inciting a panic by consumers.

4. The government activated a fund to protect money-market funds. President Bush authorized up to $50 billion that money-fund managers who pay a fee can tap into to prevent investors from losing principal.

5. On Thursday, the Fed joined other major central banks around the world to inject up to 180 billion dollar into global money markets. Meant to boost investor confidence and tighten the reigns on the crumbling credit crisis, the cash infusion did little to boost Wall Street’s mood.

6. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hatched a plan with congress members Thursday night to buy illiquid mortgage securities and auction them off later. The Bush administration asked Congress on Saturday for $700 billion to bail out firms burdened with bad mortgage debt, seeking extraordinary authority as it seeks to prevent meltdown in the global financial system.

7. Senior Bush administration officials pressed counterparts in Japan, Germany, Britain and other nations to set up similar plans for their own troubled financial firms

8. The SEC issued a temporary ban on short selling on 799 financial stocks. The ban runs through October 2 but the SEC may extend the ban if they feel it is necessary.

9. The SEC also eased rules to make it easier for companies to buy back their own stock shares. The idea is that buybacks can be an important source of liquidity during volatile times.

10. The Federal Reserve extended emergency lending procedures to allow commercial banks to finance purchases of asset-backed paper from money market funds. It also said it would buy short-term debt from Fannie Mae, (FNM) Freddie Mac (FRE) and the Federal Home Loan Banks.

11. Friday's volume was mixed. Bulked up by quadruple witching trading, NYSE trade swelled 14.7%. Nasdaq volume dropped 1.8%.

12. Gold has benefited from a wave of risk aversion that has hit the markets after U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The impact of the U.S. government's unprecedented $700 billion plan to bail out bad mortgage debt is expected to significantly weaken the dollar, and that means higher oil and gold prices. Bullion gained nearly 2 percent on Friday, but it was well off a high above $900 reached on Thursday when safe-haven demand for the precious metal heightened.

13. Oil tracked the stock market. It finished at $104.55 a barrel, up from $101.25 last week. But on Wednesday, it closed at $91.02, its lowest since February. Crude is now 29% off the high of $147.90 in July. Like gold, expect oil to rise due to the effects of a weaker dollar

To boil things down, the U.S. financial system is in a pretty pickle right now, and deleveraging is continuing to happen and will continue to happen for a while yet. Democratic lawmakers, who control both houses of Congress, said they hoped to approve the bailout quickly but wanted changes such as more oversight, limits on executive pay at participating firms, and assistance for homeowners.

On Monday investors will focus intently on testimonies by Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and a speech by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet. Their comments will be scrutinized closely.

Also this week data is expected on the U.S. housing market, the euro zone services sector.

A sharp slide in U.S. housing prices and a subsequent rise in delinquencies on home loans is the root cause of these massive losses on mortgage-backed bonds that in recent years have spread across the global financial landscape. The problem is that the $700 Billion bailout does not really fix the root problem including falling real estate prices, foreclosures, and a glut in the housing market and credit so tight that most normal consumers won't have the credit rating and down payments available to start buying homes again to soak up the excess housing inventory and get new building going again. Oil is likely to go up again with the flooding of the market with U.S. dollars to fight the liquidity crisis and likely weakening of the dollar.

We are not out of the woods yet. Congress and the Bush administration and the Federal Reserve have not hammered out the final details of the $700B bailout plan. We will have to watch this week and see what the markets think about the Fed's bailout plan and if it instills confidence and calms the market. If not, it could be another ugly week.